The Liberal Party is in a freefall, and it’s not just about numbers—it’s about identity. Once a dominant force in Australian politics, the party now finds itself electorally starving, outmaneuvered by the rising tide of 'teal' independents who have devoured their support with relentless efficiency. For three consecutive elections, these independents have exposed the Liberals’ vulnerabilities, particularly in inner-metropolitan seats, where voters—often unfairly labeled as 'elite'—are proving to be a formidable and growing demographic.
But here’s where it gets controversial: The teals’ success isn’t just about their appeal; it’s about the Liberals’ self-inflicted wounds. Their campaign mantra—that the National Party dictates the Liberal Party’s climate and energy policy—has resonated deeply. And while Barnaby Joyce’s recent theatrics, including his flirtation with One Nation, might complicate that message, the core claim remains damningly accurate. The Liberals seem determined to prove it, too, with their increasingly chaotic approach to energy policy.
Consider this: The party is on the brink of abandoning its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, a policy it upheld during nearly a decade in government. Why the sudden reversal? The Nationals’ public rejection of net zero has forced the Liberals’ hand, with Joyce himself boasting of his role in derailing the policy. Nationals leader David Littleproud claims there’s a ‘cheaper, better, fairer way’ to reduce emissions—yet neither he nor the Coalition ever bothered to implement it during their time in power. Where was this magical solution then? And why is it still a mystery now?
The Liberals’ stance on net zero has become a Rorschach test of their values. While the party officially reviews the policy, the emotional and strategic chaos surrounding it suggests they’ve lost control of the narrative. Even if they retain the commitment, the damage is done. Voters no longer see net zero as a reliable pillar of Liberal policy—and Opposition Leader Sussan Ley knows it.
And this is the part most people miss: The net zero debate isn’t just about emissions; it’s about the Liberals’ identity. Pull that thread, and the entire party’s ideology begins to unravel. What do they stand for? Lower taxes? Aspiration? Market solutions? Or is it all just reactive posturing, like their bizarre fixation on prime ministerial T-shirts?
Ley showed promise early on, standing firm against Littleproud during the Nats’ brief defection and sidelining Jacinta Nampijinpa Price for her inflammatory remarks. But recent missteps—from T-shirt controversies to her calls for Kevin Rudd’s dismissal as ambassador—have dulled her shine. Worse, history offers no comfort: Every Liberal leader since Tony Abbott has been felled by climate policy, one way or another.
Abbott’s landslide victory against the Gillard government’s carbon tax was short-lived; his oppositional stance crumbled in government, leading to his ousting by Malcolm Turnbull. Turnbull, in turn, ratified the Paris Agreement and proposed the ‘National Energy Guarantee’—a sensible but misunderstood policy that was torpedoed by his own party, paving the way for Scott Morrison’s rise. Morrison’s embrace of coal and lackluster response to the 2019-2020 bushfires—with their harrowing images of flames and suffering wildlife—marked a turning point in public perception of climate urgency. Despite signing on to net zero in 2021, his credibility never recovered.
Peter Dutton’s attempt to sidestep the issue with a far-fetched nuclear energy plan only highlighted the party’s desperation. Here’s the harsh truth: The Liberals aren’t self-sabotaging because they’re fighting for something—they’re sabotaging because they’ve lost sight of what they stand for. If they abandon net zero, what remains? A party adrift, offering less than zero.
So, here’s the question: Can the Liberal Party reclaim its identity and purpose, or is it destined to become a shadow of its former self? And what does this mean for Australia’s climate future? Let’s hear your thoughts—agree or disagree, the floor is open.
